BBY New Zealand

Overnight Points of Interest

2013 May 22 by Graham

Good morning

Overnight

# European stocks spent almost the entire session in the red before comments on the FED ‘taper’ debate drove the EuroStoxx600 index to a late +0.07% close. The Fed speak that rescued the European session drove U.S. stocks to fresh all-time highs, the S&P500 rising to a +0.17% close.

# With heightened anticipation ahead of Bernanke’s testimony tonight close attention was paid to FED speakers Bullard and Dudley. Bullard said the “ Fed should continue bond buying according to incoming data” whilstDudleysaid he “hadn’t decided whether the next policy move should be an increase or a decrease in bond buying”. The dovish comments were seen a broadly supportive of stocks.

# Stocks market sentiment was further buoyed by Goldman Sachs, which upgraded its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 1750, after coming into the year predicting the S&P 500 would finish 2013 at 1575. Goldman’s chief equity strategist, cited growing confidence in theU.S.recovery and said he expects higher-than-expected dividends from S&P 500 companies to draw yield-starved investors to stocks. In particular, he sees the biggest gains coming in technology, financial and consumer-discretionary shares.

# The dismissal of any near term ‘tapering’ by the FED speakers made for a whippy session for currencies. After a high of 0.8210 yesterday the NZD/USD fell as low as 0.8117 before a sharp run higher to 0.8190 was seen. The pair has since drifted off to 0.8165 currently.

# UK Inflation fell to the lowest level in 7 months sending GBP almost a cent lower against the USD. Economists had expected the consumer prices index (CPI) to drop to 2.6% from 2.8% in March on the back of a recent dip in petrol prices, but the Office for National Statistics revealed a far steeper fall to 2.4%.

# U.S. 10 year bond yields hit 2.0% early in the session but the level proved fleeting with the FED speak driving the bond back to a 1.93% finish.

# Crude declined for the first time in 5 days. Volumes were lower than normal and the generally firm USD was widely quoted as the weighing factor. U.S.crude dropped 0.6 % as the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency against six others, rose for the seventh time in nine days, reducing the appeal of raw materials priced in dollars.

# Gold gave back some of the outsized gains of the day before however many analysts are looking at a potential ‘double bottom’ on the charts seen at the US$1,335.00 area. Gold sits off the overnight high of US$1,402.00 at $1,375.00 presently.

Ahead (big !)

#JapanTrade Balance

# Westpac Australian Consumer Sentiment

#JapanMonetary Policy Statement

#UKMonetary Policy Meeting Minutes

#UKRetail Sales

# Eurozone EconomicSummit

#U.S.Existing Home Sales

# FED Chairman Bernanke Testifies To Congress

# U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes

Cheers G.

BBY (NZ) Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

Overnight Points of Interest

2013 May 17 by Graham

Good morning

Overnight

# A second consecutive night of weaker than expected U.S data finally took its toll on equity markets. That said, the EuroStoxx600 hung in there, ending essentially flat at -0.03% however stateside bourses succumbed to the weight of the data misses, the S&P500 ending down 0.5%.

#  The Philadelphia Fed survey showed manufacturing in the region unexpectedly contracted in May as new orders retreated and factories cut back on employment and hours. The decline was the first in 3 months corroborating other figures this week showing manufacturing in the New York Fed region also unexpectedly contracting.

# U.S. Housing Starts fell more than forecast in April to a five-month low. Housing starts slumped 16.5 %, the most since February 2011, to an 853,000 annualized rate after a revised 1.02 million pace in March. However Building Permits are running at a higher pace suggesting that this is just a pause after a strong recent run and momentum will resume in due course.

# U.S. Inflation numbers showed prices fell 0.4% in April. Excluding food and energy, inflation rose only 0.1%m/m v 0.2% expected.

# U.S. Jobless Claims, gave back some of the sharp gains that saw 5 year lows recorded last week. The data showed 360k of claims, well up from last week’s 328k result.

# As a result the U.S. 10 year bond yield continued the correction to the recent strong run, dropping back to 1.87% from a high of 1.98% earlier in the week.

# European Industry Commissioner Tajani commented that “ Euro is too strong, ECB should manage the currency to help exports” The comment took EUR off its highs sending the single currency half a cent lower.

# The NZD was the weakest of the G-10 pairs as the previous ‘carry trade’ favourites continue to underperform. The kiwi lost ground against all comers but most notably against the USD, falling from 0.8260 to test 0.8160 and against GBP from 0.5425 to 0.5335. In the process the bird traced out ‘bearish engulfing days’ against both suggesting further immediate falls ahead. What’s the old adage for the kiwi…..’up the stairs and down the elevator’?

# Heavy fund selling saw Gold slump again, creating the largest slump in 16 months. Gold fell 0.7% to US$1385.00 and has fallen 17% this year.

# U.S Crude rose 0.9% as the weak jobless claims and deflationary aspect to the U.S CPI number suggested the FED won’t be earlier to ‘taper’.

# The IMF said that global central banks and their extraordinary policies have saved the world but that they could face severe losses when time came to withdraw the stimulus.

Ahead

# NZ Producer Prices

# JapanMachinery Orders

# Universityof Michigan  Consumer Sentiment

Have a good weekend and go the Canes and the Blues

G.

BBY (NZ) Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

Overnight Points of Interest

2013 May 1 by Graham

Good morning

Overnight

# European stocks lost ground on a record Eurozone unemployment number howeverU.S.stocks made moderate gains with the S&P500 rallying to new all-time highs in the last few minutes of the session. The EuroStoxx600 ended down 0.23% whilst the S&P500 rose 0.25%.

# Eurozone unemployment for March rose to 12.1%, the highest since 1995. There is now more than 19 mio people out of work in the combined economic zone. The biggest rise in unemployment was inGreece, where the jobless rate jumped by almost a percentage point in one month to 27.2%. Youth unemployment in the bailed-out nation crept closer to 60%, with 59.1% of 16 to 24-year-olds out of work in January, compared with 58.4% in December.

# Meanwhile Eurozone inflation fell to a 3 year low of 1.2% in April, the biggest monthly drop in more than 4 years. The combined inflation and unemployment data has many analysts expecting an interest rate cut from the ECB this week.

# Spain announced that their economy, the 4^th largest in the Eurozone contracted a further 0.5% in Q1, the 7^th consecutive decline. The latest figure is in line with Bank of Spain forecasts which predict that Spain’s economy will shrink by around 1.3 % by year end and not begin to return to growth until well into 2014. Embattled Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was forced to acknowledge that despite stringent austerity measures the nation would need an additional two years to bring its public deficit to within the 3 % limit demanded by European Union partners.

# German Retail Sales fell for a second month in March, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is struggling to recover.

# Despite the rotten data the EUR actually rallied against the greenback by as much as 1% at one stage, lifting from 1.3053 to 1.3184.

# The likely catalyst was the Chicago FED PMI which showed manufacturing conditions in the Chicago region contracted for the first time in 3.5 years. The index dropped to 49.0 from 52.4 in the month of April hitting its lowest level since September 2009.

# U.S. Consumer Confidence rebounded in April rising to 68.1% v 61.0 a 5 month high, most probably driven by improving house prices.

# S&P/Case Shiller US house price index a composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 1.2%m/m in February, the strongest in six years.

# Apple Inc. set a record for the global bond market with a blockbuster $17bn debt sale on Tuesday as the iPhone maker raised capital to fund its plan to return $100bn to shareholders. While Apple has $145bn of cash on its balance sheet, only $45bn is held in theUS and repatriating foreign reserves would be costly due to tax implications. This has motivated the company to access the US debt market for the first time.

# U.S. 10-year yields touched a 4-month low of 1.64% overnight as falling inflation (the core PCE fell to 1.1% on Monday) and deteriorating economic data has raised speculation the Fed could be a little more dovish this time around (no tapering talk).

# U.S Crude dropped 1.1% ahead of tonight’s stockpiles report which is expected to show ever increasing U.S. reserves.

Ahead

# AIG Australian Manufacturing Index

#ChinaOfficial Manufacturing PMI

# RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

#UKManufacturing PMI

# ADP Non-Farm Employment report

#U.S.ISM Manufacturing PMI

# U.S Construction Spending

Cheers G.

Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

Overnight Points of Interest

2013 March 20 by Graham

Good morning

Overnight

# The Cyprus bailout drama continued to weigh on European equities with the ‘big board’ EuroStoxx600 closing down 0.45%. U.S. bourses were mixed, but generally heavy, with the S&P500 declining for the 3^rd straight day the longest stretch of declines since a 5 day run lower in December. The ‘blue chip’ Dow rose marginally however, up 0.04%

# The Cypriot parliament voted against the controversial bank bailout deal hatched with the EU over the weekend. 36 members of parliament voted no, 19 abstained from voting and no one voted in favor of it. Rejection of the tax effectively blocks a 10 billion-euro EU bailout deal that Cyprus needs to save its banks and ensure government workers continue to receive their salaries. Parliament was presented with a ‘plan B’ whereby accounts holding below 20,000 euros were exempt from the new tax, but that concession was insufficient to convince MPs to accept it. A failure to agree on a bailout package (and some form of ‘deposit tax’) may result in Cyprus getting booted out of the Eurozone however a vote ‘for’ is rather unpalatable too.  The uncertainty is likely to weigh on investor confidence a bit longer as there is simply no prior precedent.

# Disturbingly, NZ could face the same type of ‘haircut’ should a bank fail here http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/8446573/Kiwis-could-face-Cyprus-style-trim

# At the latest fortnightly Fonterra auction milk prices soared another 14.8%. This is the 7^th consecutive fortnightly gain and brings prices to 38% above December levels and a significant 77% above the cycle lows of May 2012. Tempering the apparent good news was data showing that the price rises were driven by a 20% drop in NZ volumes, which by my maths, means NZ Inc. will actually take a step back with this result.

# U.S. builders started more homes in February and permits for future construction rose at the fastest pace in 4 ½ years. Housing starts rose annual rate of 917,000. That’s up from 910,000 in January, and it’s the second-fastest pace since June 2008. The gains are likely to grow even faster in the coming months. Building permits, a sign of future construction, increased 4.6 percent to 946,000

# Investor sentiment in Germany inched higher in March to the highest level for more than three years, with analysts convinced that the outlook for Europe’s top economy remains bright. The widely watched ZEW  investor confidence index edged up to 48.5 points in March from 48.2 points in February. That is its highest level since April 2010 (politics in Italy and the Cyprus even may take the gloss off the next one!)

# UK inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, rose to 2.8% in February from 2.7% pressured higher from rising gasoline costs and mirroring the U.S result of last week.

# Italy Jan Industrial Output rose a solid 0.8% m/m but only due to an overhaul of data used to calculate the index. Annually the result cemented a 3.6% decline.

# Gold jumped to a 3 week high on fears Europe slates crisis may escalate.

Ahead

# NZ Current Account

# Japan Bank Holiday

# China Foreign Direct Investment

# UK MPC Meeting Minutes

# U.S. FOMC Statement

Cheers G.

Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

Overnight Points of Interest

2013 January 25 by Graham

Good morning

Overnight

# The gentle grind higher in equities continues with the EuroStoxx600 ending up +0.23% while the S&P500 is broadly unchanged at +0.11%

# The NZ and Australian dollars surprisingly weakened overnight despite a raft of supportive factors. Yesterday’s healthy NZ manufacturing data, a buoyant China flash PMI, a stronger EUR and GBP all failed to support the antipodeans as they slid back into now very familiar ranges. From a high of 0.8447 the Kiwi has been as low as 0.8374.

# The currency story of the last 24 hours has been the re-emergence of the JPY weakening trend. After a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ response to the  BOJ meeting, JPY weakness soon returned. Government minister Nishimura said USD/JPY at 100 would be no problem, though it would add to import costs. He also said the Bank of Japan needs to ease more to reach its 2% inflation target. The USD/JPY strengthened from 88.50 to 90.00.

# Gold fell more than 1% after repeatedly failing to break above a key technical resistance around $1,700. Gold had failed to breach that level in the last five sessions in a row. Investor confidence in gold was eroded when major bullion bank HSBC said in a note that it had halved its exposure to gold, shifting its inflation hedge to U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).

# Whilst remaining firmly in contraction territory, the January European composite manufacturing PMI inched up to 48.2 from 47.2 previously.

# Conversely, the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI rose to a 22 month high of 56.1 from 54.0 previously, suggesting the strongest rate of growth since March 2011. Output, new orders and employment each accelerated and stayed above the 50 level indicating solid growth.

# U.S weekly jobless claims dropped to 5 year lows as the number of weekly unemployment benefit applications dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 330,000. That’s the fewest since January 2008. Perhaps the FED will get their 6.5% unemployment rate far sooner than most expect?

# Apple Inc. suffered the biggest share-price decline in its history following a mixed earnings report yesterday. Apple stock was down 12% at $452.46 after trading above $700.00 only as recently as late September. Clearly making US$13 bio in a quarter is not good enough ! (it did take them almost twice as many unit sales to achieve a similar profit to the previous quarter). Apple sells 10 units of various product every second globally.

Ahead

# Japan CPI (a bigger deal these days given the newly embraced +2.0% target)

# Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

# UK Preliminary GDP

# U.S New Home Sales

Regards and have a good weekend.

G.

Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

Overnight Points of Interest

2012 November 15 by Graham

Good morning

Overnight

# The broad based weakness seen in global equity markets since QE3 was announced recommenced afresh with another solid round of losses racked up overnight. The EuroStoxx600 fell 0.91% and the S&P500 is currently down 0.81% and heading toward 3 month lows. Today’s losses are the 5^th in 6 trading days since the U.S. presidential election.

# After a bright start U.S equity markets turned turtle on ‘fiscal cliff’ concerns as US President Obama kicked off negotiations by asking for an extra US$1.6t in tax revenue over 10 years, well above the $0.8b of previous talks. His request for extra taxation suggests an increased brake on economic activity and the markets voiced their displeasure accordingly.

# The commodity currencies woefully underperformed despite stable to higher commodity prices. One can understand the NZD underperformance following the wicked run of bad data seen recently (watch today’s manufacturing PMI for further clues) however the AUD and CAD moves seem a little strange. The NZD/USD is sharply down to 0.8100 from 0.8200 just prior to yesterday’s Retail Sales figure. It is against the European currencies that the move is particularly pronounced with the NZD/EUR falling 1.5% from 0.6455 to 0.6340.

# The JPY finally weakened in accordance with my expectations after PM Noda announced willingness to dissolve Parliament Friday for snap elections on 16 Dec. This should pave the way for the LDP, led by Abe, to push for more aggressive monetary policy easing. Abe is the guy that wants to target inflation at 3% which, given the fact that they can’t establish 1% inflation yet, would require some outrageous easing policies. The USD/JPY rose significantly from 79.40 to 80.20.

# Crude Oil rose on reports Israel had assassinated the Hamas military chief, sparking renewed violence in the region. Oil prices are currently up around 0.8%, at US$86/barrel.

# U.S. Retail Sales came in lower than expected at -0.3% in October v -0.2% however there’s probably no need to panic as super storm Sandy no doubt had a dampening effect (pun intended).

# The BoE Inflation Report made for dour reading with inflation forecasts upped whilst growth expectations were downgraded (stagflation anyone?). Targeted inflation by end 2013 was revised to 2.2%y/y whilst at the same time, the growth outlook was lowered – 2013 forecasts are now just 1.5%y/y.

# This mornings FED Minutes suggest that it will unveil a Treasury-buying plan to replace a program that expires at year’s end. Under the existing program, called “Operation Twist,” the Fed has been selling $45 billion a month in short-term Treasury’s and using the proceeds to buy an equal amount of longer-term securities. When Operation Twist ends, the Fed will run out of short-term investments to sell. The minutes show support among the Fed’s policymakers to replace Twist with another program of long-term bond purchases.

# Thomson gets only a one week ban in a clear signal that it’s alright to remind your opposition that it’s not OK to be lying all over our side of the ruck. It was only a light tap after all.

Ahead

# N.Z. Business Manufacturing PMI

# Australian M.I. Institute Inflation Expectations

# U.K. Retail Sales

# European Q3 GDP

# U.S. Unemployment Claims

# U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index

# U.S Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Cheers G.

Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

Overnight Points of Interest

2012 November 14 by Graham

Good morning

Overnight

# Equity markets generally did better with gentle rises recorded on both sides of the Atlantic. The EuroStoxx600 rose 0.40% while the S&P500 is currently up 0.24% at time of writing. The tech laden Nasdaq bucked the trend, down marginally by 0.15%

# The U.S housing sector once again got the plaudits for lifting the U.S. markets with Home Depot lifting 2012 earnings forecasts and putting the stock within reach of 12 year highs. The stream of better U.S housing data, albeit off a low base, has run for a good 9 months now.

# The EUR/USD fell to 2-month lows of 1.2665 and US stock futures initially slipped into the red following the conclusion of the Eurogroup meeting. Finance ministers agreed to Greece’s two year extension, but held back the €31b aid tranche until they can agree on the path for Greece’s debt sustainability.

# Greece’s  unusually large auction to stave off a potential default on €5 billion ($6.35 billion) worth of three-month bills sold in August and maturing Friday while the country is still awaiting the €31.5 billion loan payment went well enough. Greece sold €4.063 billion of Treasury bills at Tuesday’s sale. Under Greek debt office rules, the country allows banks to buy an additional 30% of the total auction amount two days later. That would take the total to €5 billion—the amount needed by the Greek government to honor its commitment to repay investors when their securities mature Friday.

# Compounding the misery was the release of the German ZEW economic Sentiment survey which failed to even met the already scaled back expectations. The survey recorded 5.4 versus an expected 8.0. (more evidence that Germany is being dragged into the mire).

# The recent sweet spot in UK inflation was abruptly reversed as UK October CPI inflation rises to 2.7%y/y (2.4% expected), possibly constraining the ability of the BoE to re-stimulate the UK economy

# The NZD/AUD rose to 0.7860 following yesterday’s NAB October Business Survey which fell to a three-year low of -5 from -3. NZ Retail Sales will be the key to whether the cross can continue its recovery of near 0.7800 or whether on the back of the terrible NZ Employment report of last week the market gets spooked about a rapid Q3 slowing of the NZ economy.

Ahead

# N.Z. Quarterly Retail Sales

# Westpac Australian Consumer Sentiment

# Australian Wage Price Index

# UK Unemployment Claims

# European Industrial Production

# Bank of England Inflation Report

# U.S. Retail Sales

# U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes

Cheers G.

Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

The Canterbury Rebuild (and NZ monetary policy)

2012 October 30 by Graham

All

On Friday, following the previous day’s OCR, I had a catch up with the Head of Forecasting at the RBNZ.

The price action suggested that market had seemed somewhat confused by what the OCR review and the Governor’s maiden speech on Friday morning was telling them. The OCR was perceived as hawkish while the speech, some 24 hours later, elicited a dovish reaction.

Amongst many things discussed came the statement that the RBNZ viewed the rebuild as ‘real’ and for me that statement is really the kicker given the last paragraph of the OCR statement…

What they are saying here is that they expect inflationary pressures to come out of Canterbury as firms compete for (tight) labour and materials and that they are watching closely.

For a gauge on the timing of any such effect I thought this graph in this week’s ANZ’s Market Focus was interesting.

Ready-Mixed Concrete Production – click here to view chart

The chart clearly suggests that building activity died in Canterbury the year after the quake (as you’d expect) but now the rebuild is becoming FULLY UNDERWAY.

Cheers G.

Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

Overnight Points of Interest

2012 September 30 by Graham

Overnight

# European shares were roundly hit on Spanish bank fears whilst U.S .bourses registered milder losses. The EuroStoxx600 fell 1.17% dragged down by sharp losses in France and Italy of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively. The S&P  fell 0.45%.

# Supposed ‘stress tests’ of 14 of Spain’s biggest banks suggested they needed another 59.3bln injection (when will it stop?) of capital with 7 banks needing assistance and 7 not. Spain’s benchmark 10 year bond was duly sold with the yield rising back to 6.0% .

# German Retail Sales disappointed coming in at +0.3% against an expected +0.6% and 1.0% previously.

# Assuming +0.8% growth this year (hopeful?) France announced that their debt burden would be 93% of GDP.

# Reuters quoted Japan’s Finance Ministry as saying the new FinMin would bring up the JPY’s on-going strength at the next G-7 meeting.  The USD/JPY experienced a choppy day’s trading ending up making pronounced outside range day up (could the long awaited JPY weakness have started Friday?).

# Similarly GBP had a pronounced outside day lower in extremely volatile trade. Month and quarter end flows were said to have featured strongly.

# U.S. inflation gauges remain subdued with the PCE Core reading for August coming in at 0.1% for 1.6% y/y.

# The Chicago PMI (Performance of Manufacturing) dropped below the pivotal 50 mark at 49.7 from 53 previously.

 # Prominent Ratings agency Fitch reaffirmed the UK sovereign debt rating as AAA, outlook negative, stating that they saw only a weak recovery taking hold in 2013.

# The final revision to the HSBC China Sept PMI  reading came in up  0.1 to a still contracting  47.9 ( from a very high lrate of course). Export orders were a particularly weak component of the survey whilst the employment sub index surprised with its resilience.

# The Herald Sun’s noted RBA watcher Terry McCrann wrote that an Australian rate cut of 0.25% on Tuesday was “almost certain” saying the RBA left the door open and that there was no point waiting for the next release of likely tame inflation data. The market currently prices a 66% chance of the cut going ahead. Whilst some early indicators for H2 growth appear to suggest a slowing for Australia but the RBA may want to keep  all their stimulation tools dry for more urgent times.  This decision is by no means a foregone conclusion.

The week ahead (very busy with central bank decisions to the fore)

01 Oct: Japan Tankan Report, AU MI Inflation Gauge, China manufacturing PMI, European PMI’s, UK PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. 02 Oct: Australian RBA Cash Rate. 03 Oct: China Non-Manufacturing PMI, AU Trade Bal, European Services PMI’s, US ADP Employment, US Non-manufacturing PMI. 04 Oct: AU Building Approvals, AU Retail Sales, UK MPC Rate Statement, ECB Rate Decision, US FOMC Minutes. 05 Oct: Japan MPS, US Non-Farm Payrolls.

Edge Capital Markets Limited,  a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities

Overnight Points of Interest

2012 August 5 by Graham

Overnight

# Global equity markets roared higher on Friday rounding out a fascinating week. Sharp falls in Spanish and Italian borrowing costs lit the initial fire whilst a mixed U.S. jobs reports kept the sentiment fanned. The EuroStoxx600 rose 2.43% (Spain’s Ibex up a whopping 6.0%) and the S&P500 rose 1.9%.

# Spanish bond yields plunged after the Spanish PM suggested Spain may soon apply for aid from the EFSF. It was the front end of the interest rate curve that fell most, the 2-year Spanish yield crashed off to 3.73% from 4.53% late Thursday (it was around 7.0% a little over a week ago!) and likewise the Italian 2-year yield collapsed to 3.27% from 3.78% late Friday.

# The EUR/USD surged notching up impressive gains against all comers. From a recent low of 1.2040 the EUR is now pushing against the 1.2400 barrier. From a recent high of 0.6680 the NZD/EUR has been forced back to 0.6605 on the EUR strength.

# Commodity markets staged a strong relief rally – with NY copper gaining 2.34% while NYMEX Crude gained close to 5.0%. Gold climbed back above 1,600 to close at 1,603 – up from 1,590 late Thursday.

# The U.S Non-Farm Payrolls report generated a fair amount of enthusiasm although the details were not exactly scintillating. Indeed the good vibes may be based on the ‘Goldilocks’ notion of ‘not too hot and not too cold’. That is, whilst the headline number was better than forecast at 163k v 100k , the unemployment rate worsened from 8.2% to 8.3% and the prior months results were revised for the worst. This keeps the market happy in the near term but also keeps a FED easing in the picture as well.

# A poll of 16 US primary dealers (banks the deal directly with the FED) taken after payrolls shows 63% chance of more QE and if the Fed were to act, then 13 dealers say it could happen at Sept meeting.

# Presidential candidate Romney told CNN that the Fed shouldn’t use new stimulus measures

# The UK Telegraph reported that the BOE is poised to sharply downgrade growth and inflation forecasts. It is expected to slash 2012 growth forecast from plus 0.7% to close to zero and growth forecast for 2013 expected to be cut to 1.5% from 2.0% in May statement

The week ahead (major releases in bold)

# : 6 August: AU NSW bank holiday; 7 August: NZ QES & LCI labour market surveys; AU RBA meeting; UK IP; UK manufacturing; EU German factory orders; 8 August: NZ QV house prices; AU loan approvals; JN trade balance; UK BoE inflation report; EU German IP; 9 August: NZ HLFS employment; NZ consumer confidence; AU employment; CH CPI, retail sales, IP, and investment; JN BoJ meeting; US trade balance; US jobless claims; 10 August: NZ card spending; AU RBA Monetary Policy Statement; CH trade balance; JN IP; EU German CPI; UK PPIs;

Today

# FED Chairman Bernanke speaks.

Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities